The Austin housing market begins this week showing clear signs of a slower absorption environment, and while demand is not collapsing, the data confirms that buyers continue to hold most of the leverage right now. Inventory remains elevated at 15,347 active listings, with over half of sellers already issuing at least one price reduction. In a market where 58.2 percent of listings have dropped price and the Activity Index sits at just 20.1 percent, the pace of movement is clearly behind seasonal expectations. Buyers today are navigating a market with more choice, longer timelines, and increasing price flexibility, while sellers must lead with competitiveness rather than confidence. That core understanding frames today’s austin real estate analysis and informs an honest austin housing forecast going into the first quarter of 2026.
Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for Monday, November 24, 2025.
At the heart of today’s austin market update is supply. Current active listings are 15,347, up 14.2 percent compared to this time last year. That gap matters because demand has not kept pace. Pending listings are slightly down year over year at 3,865, a 0.9 percent decline. Historically, when new inventory rises faster than pending contracts, the result is weaker negotiating power for sellers. We see that playing out now. 2025 has recorded 47,443 new residential listings year to date, up 4.5 percent compared to 2024 and 22.2 percent above the long term average. Pending volume has trailed behind at 40,299 year to date, down 2.8 percent from last year. This gap of 7,144 more new listings than pending contracts is one of the clearest indicators that while the Austin housing market remains active, it is not absorbing excess inventory efficiently.
The Activity Index underscores this imbalance. Today it sits at 20.1 percent, compared to 22.5 percent one year ago, representing a 10.6 percent decline in relative market speed. In practical terms, that means homes are going under contract at a slower rate, fueling longer days on market and greater price concessions. New construction continues to outperform resale with an index of 26.55 percent compared to 17.33 percent for resale. That gap is significant because builders continue to push inventory into the market and offer incentives that traditional sellers cannot match. From a pricing strategy standpoint, resale properties competing with new construction must adjust positioning or risk being overlooked entirely.
Pricing remains stable but well below peak levels. The average sold price for November is $596,195. That is down 12.57 percent from the peak of May 2022, which reached $681,939. The median sold price today is $449,900, reflecting an 18.20 percent drop from the high of $550,000. These declines are consistent with the broader correction that began in mid 2022. Today’s median is still 2.20 percent lower than pricing levels three years ago, signaling that pricing momentum has not yet returned. Long term, the 25 year compound appreciation rate for the Austin market is 4.980 percent. If today represents the bottom at $449,900, it would take 53 months, or until March 2030, for median pricing to reach a projected $551,598 under the historical appreciation rate. This forms the foundation of a forward looking austin real estate forecast, highlighting that recovery will be gradual rather than rapid barring a dramatic shift in supply or rate environment.
Months of Inventory today stands at 5.48 compared to 4.73 last year, a 15.9 percent increase. The market is now firmly in a buyer advantage category, with most areas ranging between 4.5 and 7.5 months of supply. Only 3 percent of cities are operating in fast selling territory, while 50 percent fall into the contraction zone and 19 percent are in crisis, where buyer activity freezes and price correction accelerates. High movement submarkets such as parts of Cedar Park and certain Austin zip codes continue to show pockets of resilience, but broad conditions point to longer listings and increased negotiation pressure. For sellers, this means proper pricing from day one is critical. For buyers, patience is rewarded in both inventory selection and negotiation outcomes.
Sales volume continues at a stable cadence but is below long term expectations. November closed 2,279 residential sales. Year to date, 27,983 homes have sold, which is 3.0 percent below last year but still 8.1 percent above the historical average. This shows that despite high inventory, demand remains present, just more selective. When reviewed against population growth, the trend becomes clearer. The number of homes sold per 100,000 residents is 1,093, down 5.3 percent year over year and 20.3 percent below average. From an industry capacity standpoint, agents have slightly improved performance with 1,513 sales per 1,000 agents, up 1.7 percent from last year though still significantly below average. Put simply, the market is active, but the energy is diffused across more listings, longer timelines, and more negotiation cycles.
One of the most effective ways to understand current market mechanics is through the absorption rate. Today it is 16.67 percent, far below the historical average of 31.70 percent. Absorption rate measures what share of available inventory is selling in a given period. Anything above 30 percent generally reflects solid seller leverage. Anything below 20 percent indicates a soft to contracting market. Today’s figure confirms that Austin is operating in a slow movement phase. This is further reflected in the Market Flow Score of 4.80, which remains well below the long term average of 6.59. Low flow signals that excess inventory is taking longer to convert into closed sales, often requiring multiple pricing adjustments or incentive offerings.
Looking at segmentation, the upper tier of the market held stronger than the lower bracket. The top 25th percentile of homes showed a 7.11 percent increase year over year with price per square foot up 2.59 percent. The bottom 25th percentile only gained 1.22 percent in price and actually saw a 0.75 percent decline in price per square foot. This spread illustrates that the most price sensitive parts of the market remain affected by affordability constraints and increased competition from new construction. Higher end properties are stabilizing but still not appreciating at rates that reflect a normal growth cycle.
For buyers, current conditions offer greater leverage and broader choice. With nearly six months of supply and more than half of listings posting price drops, buyers can take time to select carefully, negotiate improvements, and pursue closing cost support. For sellers, the takeaway is clear. Pricing must reflect the active competition, not past performance. Delayed adjustments result in prolonged market times and deeper reductions later. Strategic sellers are setting pricing below comparable inventory to trigger activity quickly rather than waiting for the market to bring them buyers.
Investors should pay close attention to market velocity metrics. While pricing has stabilized, the real opportunity lies in timing acquisitions toward submarkets showing the first signs of tightening absorption. Watch Activity Index changes by zip code and monitor resale versus new construction dynamics. Suburbs with growing affordability pressure may lead the next pricing adjustment period before stabilizing. Investors positioned early in those windows will outperform.
For real estate agents, success in today’s environment comes from demonstrating deep local knowledge, proactive pricing guidance, and continuous monitoring of local performance metrics. The average agent must work harder to secure activity, but top-performing agents will capitalize on the information gap between homeowners and market reality. Setting expectations clearly and aligning strategy to velocity will define performance through the next two quarters.
Looking ahead, the Austin housing forecast into early 2026 depends on how inventory behaves through the first quarter. If active listings climb past 20,000 by Q3 2026, builders will likely push pricing further and accelerate incentives. That would increase pressure on resale value retention. If inventory stabilizes under that threshold, the market could begin a slow return to balance.
In summary, today’s austin real estate conditions reflect elevated inventory, slower absorption, and price stabilization well below peak. The market remains active but leans heavily toward buyers. Sellers must lead with strategy and realism. Buyers benefit from selection and leverage. Investors should time entry based on localized activity shifts. Agents who harness data effectively will outperform.
