The Austin housing market continues to balance between higher inventory and softer buyer demand, creating a slower pace of sales that contrasts sharply with the boom years of 2020–2022.

Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for September 19, 2025.

Market Overview
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As of today, there are 16,950 active residential listings across the Austin area. That’s a 14.4% increase compared to the same time last year when active listings stood at 14,817. While this is below the June 2025 high of 18,146, it still represents a supply level that leans in favor of buyers. More than half of these homes—58.4%—have already experienced at least one price reduction, showing that sellers are adjusting expectations in order to attract offers.

On the demand side, pending listings are slightly lower than last year. Today’s total sits at 4,077 compared to 4,158 in September 2024, a 1.9% year-over-year decline. This points to steady but muted buyer activity, a trend reinforced by the Activity Index, which has dropped from 21.9% a year ago to 19.4% today. In plain terms, buyers are writing fewer contracts relative to the growing pool of available homes.

Housing Prices
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The pressure of increased supply and softer demand continues to weigh on prices. The median sold price in Austin is now $436,000. That’s a 20.7% decline from the May 2022 peak of $550,000. The average sold price is $563,956, down 17.3% from the $681,939 peak. For context, the 25-year compound annual appreciation rate in Austin is 4.85%. If today truly marks the bottom of the correction, it would take roughly 62 months—or until October 2030—for median prices to recover to peak values assuming average long-term appreciation continues.

This pricing environment reflects a growing divide between market segments. Homes in the bottom quartile are down 4.3% year over year, while the top quartile has actually gained 6.0%. Higher-end properties are holding their ground, while entry-level and mid-tier homes face heavier pricing pressure. This split underscores how affordability challenges and interest rate sensitivity weigh most heavily on first-time and cost-conscious buyers.

Regional Trends
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Sales activity year to date shows 22,896 closed transactions, down 4.3% from 2024. On a population basis, that translates to 896 sales per 100,000 residents—6.5% fewer than last year and 22.2% below the long-term average. When measured against the size of the local real estate industry, Austin Realtors are averaging just 1,225 closed sales per 1,000 agents this year, essentially flat year over year but still 25.6% below the long-term norm.

The months of inventory metric—a key gauge of balance between supply and demand—has risen from 5.28 a year ago to 5.99 today. This 13.5% increase pushes Austin further into buyer’s market territory, where choices are abundant and sellers must compete aggressively on pricing and concessions.

At the city level, conditions vary widely. Austin proper holds steady at 5.31 months of inventory, flat year over year. Meanwhile, surrounding markets like Smithville and Dale have seen inventory nearly double, while areas such as Wimberley and Driftwood show double-digit decreases. This uneven distribution means buyers and sellers must look closely at hyper-local data, not just metro-wide averages, when making decisions.

List-to-Sale Price Performance
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The high percentage of price reductions—nearly 6 in 10 listings—signals that many sellers overshoot on initial asking prices and are forced to adjust. Combined with a monthly new-listing-to-pending ratio of 0.62, well below the 25-year average of 0.82, it is clear that new supply is outpacing contract signings. This imbalance has left a year-to-date gap of 7,193 more listings than pendings.

For sellers, this reality means that strategic pricing and strong property presentation are more critical than ever. Homes that enter the market at competitive prices stand a far better chance of avoiding multiple reductions. For buyers, it creates negotiating leverage, particularly on homes that have lingered on the market after one or more price drops.

Peak Value Trends
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When compared to the recent boom era, today’s market still reflects a deep correction. Median prices are down $114,000 from peak, and average prices are down $118,000. Yet this pullback is not evenly felt. Upper-end homes continue to show resilience, while affordability challenges weigh on the lower end.

Looking forward, Austin’s long-term fundamentals remain intact. If appreciation reverts to its historic average, peak values are expected to return by fall of 2030. This timeline may accelerate if mortgage rates ease and demand rebounds, or extend further if supply remains elevated and sales volume continues to lag historical norms.

Buyer, Seller, and Investor Takeaways
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For buyers, the current environment offers expanded choice, greater negotiating power, and relief from the bidding wars of just three years ago. For sellers, patience and realistic pricing are essential. Homes that align with market expectations can still sell quickly, but overpricing risks long periods on market and repeated reductions. Investors should take note of the wide spreads in appreciation between price tiers and neighborhoods. Properties in stronger segments may offer more stable returns, while entry-level assets could present buying opportunities if purchased at sufficient discounts.

Market Flow and Absorption
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The absorption rate, at 17.5%, remains well below the historical average of 31.8%. This means fewer homes are selling relative to what’s available, keeping pressure on sellers. The Market Flow Score, another indicator of momentum, sits at 5.54 compared to the long-term average of 6.60. While not disastrous, both figures confirm a sluggish market that favors buyers in most situations.​